The Betrayer

Introduction

Mr. Trump ultimately betrays. This time, it is Ukraine, and he makes no bones about it. His fledgling second administration has accomplished what nobody else could, driving a massive wedge between America and Europe in a time of war. His secretary of defense began by taking the two most important negotiating points with Moscow — swapping land for peace and possible Ukrainian NATO membership — and gave them away to Putin before formal negotiations even commenced. To add insult to injury, the US secretary of state subsequently held peace talks in Saudi Arabia, where neither Ukraine nor Europe was represented. Then, he blamed Ukraine for the war that began with a Russian invasion. One could be forgiven for thinking that Mr. Trump is working in the best interests of the Kremlin and not the American people or our NATO allies.

Undercutting Sanctions

Given the above understanding, the bargaining position of the Trump administration is an absurdity on its face. What about Western sanctions? The sanctions imposed by the West, which up until recently included the US, are having a continuing devastating impact on the Russian economy. Sanctions are slowly working. The Russian people are hurting, while regrettably, Putin remains insulated from their suffering. However, the economic factor remains one of the most important elements of national power. Sanctions should be given more time to work. Moreover, I believe that it would be a crime against the Ukrainian people to do anything other than continue US support. Normalizing the Russia-US relationship — the Oval Office’s current track — benefits Mr. Putin only. So, why are we doing it?

Resolve

Since this is Putin’s war of choice, he is the key to ending the conflict. The historian Lord Acton was correct, “Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” But resolve is always the ultimate question in war. How much pain can Moscow suffer? Will the West continue to endure, while increasing defense expenditures and perhaps even creating a standing European Army? I am especially concerned about the future of American resolve. Apparently, “America First” means to hell with Ukraine, unless, of course, President Zelenskyy agrees to fork over Ukraine’s precious mineral resources. Mr. Trump remains relentlessly transactional.

Mr. Putin’s Fantasy and the Realist Delusion

Mr. Putin has spent more than two decades solidifying his mastery over the State apparatus. That said, it is a given that he controls all the levers of power — military, diplomatic, economic, and informational. Contrary opinions are not permitted. Plus, just like Hitler, he has cultivated the “Big Lie.” He has created mountains of mendacities. In his fantasy world the aggressor becomes the defender; an unwarranted invasion becomes a Special Military Operation; and the Ukrainians become Nazis, who must be eradicated. But the ever-growing number of dead and disabled Russian soldiers continues apace. Mr. Putin acutely feels the passage of time. Aside from being a dictator and kleptocrat, Mr. Putin views himself as the leader of a great country. He perceives the liberal democracies of Europe as threatening to his notion of control and order. The idea of a genuinely democratic Ukraine, joining the European Union and eventually NATO, and from his perspective, are a knife to the throat of his ambitions regarding his legacy. It has been said that without Ukraine, there is no Russian Empire. Despite Mr. Trump’s lie, Putin invaded Ukraine because he believes that it is in Russia’s long-term interests: the interests of the fantasy empire. This of course, and in large measure, is a similar rationale used to support his illegal annexation of the Crimea. Tragically, Mr. Putin, after more than 20 years in power, can no longer discern the difference between the interests of the state and his own, a kind of realist delusion.

Will There Ever Be Justice?

Will Mr. Putin and his henchmen ever stand trial for their war crimes? In answer, in 2019 Russia withdrew from Article 90 of the Geneva Conventions, which obliges cooperation with international fact-finding missions investigating war crimes. So, Russian witnesses and records will likely not be made available to the International Criminal Court (ICC): making prosecution extraordinarily difficult, which was of course the point. The ICC has on occasion claimed, “universal jurisdiction.” Even so, to bring any Russian citizen to the dock in The Hague, would require the cooperation of the Russian State. As currently configured, a dictatorship masquerading as a pseudo-democracy, there exists no legal mechanism to bring Putin, his associates, and soldiers to justice. Only a complete removal of the current kleptocratic regime would make it possible, and this is currently an unlikely scenario given Mr. Trump’s unceasing admiration for the Russian autocrat. Genuine democracy and the rule of law have little history within Russian borders. Interestingly, America’s current commander-in-chief also seems to find the rule of law repellent. Mr. Putin’s vision for Russia and Mr. Trump’s MAGA platform appear to have much in common.

American Greatness?

The MAGA faithful, predictably, make lots of noise about making the country great again. Does betraying Ukrainian aspirations for a genuine democracy qualify? Does betraying our long-term allies within the European Union and NATO qualify? Does supporting a dictator in the Kremlin qualify? Mr. Trump and his policies are the mirror opposite of great. In fact, his policies are nakedly transactional, lacking any moral or ethical basis. I find myself sadly amused by the religious-right that continues to support an utterly immoral White House. This Oval Office occupant is clearly the antithesis of all that Jesus taught. Moreover, genuine greatness cannot be tethered to mendacity, naked self-interest, and greed.

Conclusion

I tend to distrust the casualty figures released by governments at war. However, estimates by the Institute for International Strategic Studies and Western Intelligence services suggest that over 172,000 Russians have already died in the conflict and perhaps more than 80,000 Ukrainians have also perished. Those wounded physically and psychologically are a greater number still. I would also point out that many of the targets hit by Russian missiles and drones are predominantly civilian in nature. The people of Ukraine have demonstrated great courage in the face of long adversity. Mr. Putin does not warrant special consideration from the US president, and Ukrainians do not deserve Mr. Trump’s callous betrayal.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Robert Bruce Adolph formerly served as an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) mission leader into war-torn Ukraine in the early conflict. He is a qualified military strategist and retired senior US Army Special Forces officer and United Nations security chief. Adolph holds graduate degrees in both international affairs and national security studies and has been a frequent guest columnist for newspapers and magazines in the US and Europe. He also served as a university lecturer on American History and US Government. Adolph is additionally an international speaker and author of the well-reviewed book, “Surviving the United Nations.” He was asked to provide a formal presentation regarding the war in Ukraine to the Netherlands Atlantic Council in The Hague following his departure from Kyiv.

Discover more at www.robertbruceadolph.com.